Thursday, June 28, 2012

 

Lies, Damn Lies, and Polls about UFOs

While we're waiting for results of our latest analyses of Canadian UFO data during 2010 and 2011, let's look at what the latest poll has to say about UFOs.

A poll released yesterday by the National Geographic Channel found that 36 per cent of Americans believe UFOs exist. The poll was conducted by Kelton Research for NatGeo as a marketing campaign advertising the new NatGeo show Chasing UFOs that premieres this week. They did the survey between May 21 and May 29, 2012, "using e-mail invitations and online surveys." It was noted there was a sampling error of 2.9 points.

http://www.livescience.com/21216-americans-ufo-belief.html

The survey noted that 80 million Americans (36 per cent) are sure UFO exist, 17 per cent do not think they exist, and 48 per cent aren't sure.

The first poll to ask the same (or similar, I think) question was done by Gallup in 1966, and found that 46 per cent thought UFOs were real, while 29 per cent thought UFOs were just the product of imaginations. Gallup's re-poll in 1971 found 51 percent in favour and 28 per cent against. In 1978, the percentages were 57 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively. In 1987, Gallup found 49 percent thought UFOs were "real," and 30 percent thought they were imaginary, while 21 per cent were "not sure."

A Canadian Gallup Poll in 1974 found that 53 per cent of Canadians thought UFOs were "real," and 26 per cent thought UFOs were just in people's imaginations. In 1978, a duplicate poll was conducted, and the numbers had shifted slightly to 57 per cent in favour and 22 for imagination.

Industrial Research Magazine in 1971 found the percentage of those who believe UFOs definitely existed was 54 per cent, while the non-believers were at 31 per cent. An Opinion Research survey in 1978 found that 35 per cent of respondents "believed" in UFOs, while 52 per cent thought UFOs were "real." (An interesting distinction.)

The latest NatGeo poll also reported that about 11 per cent of Americans believe they've seen a UFO. And 20 per cent say they know someone who has seen one. This is completely consistent with all previous polls, including those including Canada.

The Nat Geo poll also reported that about 79 per cent of Americans think the government is keeping information on UFOs from the public, and, even more remarkable, that 55 percent (or more than half of all Americans) think that Men In Black are real and are threatening witnesses of UFOs.

Then the Kelton types went really off the deep end. They asked, if you did meet an alien, what would you do? 22 per cent would befriend the alien; 15 would run for the hills; 13 would lock their doors; and two percent would go on the offensive and attack.

But, if aliens did attack Earth, who would you call? 21 per cent would call the Hulk; 12 per cent would call Batman; and only 8 per cent would call Spider-Man. The question leading up to this asked if aliens are more likely to exist than superheroes, vampires and zombies. This seems a bit off-base, since most astronomers think alien life is likely in the universe, so that grouping aliens and The Avengers is not logical.

The most significant finding, however, was that 65 per cent of Americans believe that Barack Obama would be better suited to handle an alien invasion than Milt Romney. Furthermore, 68 per cent of women thought Obama would be the best to deal with aliens, while 61 per cent of men thought so. In terms of age differences, those under 65 thought Obama was the man, while for those over 65, Romney and Obama were tied.

Although almost half of all respondents weren't sure that UFOs existed at all, the poll shows that aliens are still on the minds of a lot of people. And on marketers, especially.

And we haven't told you what the actual report numbers for UFO cases in Canada are for 2010 and 2011 yet.

Stay tuned.




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# posted by rutkows @ 12:38 PM 1 comments

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

 

Canadians believe


There's a new Angus Reid Poll that looks at "Stranger Things," according to its website. It covered UFOs, ghosts, psychic phenomena, Sasquatch and lake monsters.

 In short, Canadians believe.

 A few selected points:

 80% of Canadians believe ET exists in the universe.
Twice as many women as men believe in psychic phenomena.
43% of Canadians say there is a UFO cover-up.
And most importantly, Manitobans are the most skeptical in the entire country.
(Yay me.)

 Some of the detailed findings:
The vast majority of Canadians (79 per cent) say it is either definitely (29 per cent) or probably (50 per cent) true that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe.
When asked whether those life-forms have visited Earth, however, they’re more
circumspect. While one-in-ten still say they believe this is definitely true, the majority swings toward disbelief. When asked if they believe that “Extraterrestrial beings have already visited the Earth,” 11 per cent replied “Definitely True,” 36 per cent replied “Probably True,” 35 per cent replied “Probably Not True” and 18 per cent replied “Definitely Not True.”



Angus Reid interpreted this as the majority of Canadians (53 per cent) don’t believe aliens have visited Earth.

In an election, the majority would win. In this poll, the error bar was plus or minus 2.5 per cent. In other words, it’s really quite close to half and half.

The gender unbalance has been noted before in several studies, but it is really quite strong in this case.

The poll notes:
When it comes to paranormal phenomena such as ghosts, communication with the dead, and psychic powers, women are about twice as likely men to believe such things are possible.
For belief in aliens, however, the gender disparity almost vanishes: 48 per cent men and 46 per cent women. (Don’t ask about the missing six per cent.)

As for a UFO cover-up, 43 per cent of Canadians believe there is such a thing. The statement in question was: “The U.S. government has covered up the existence and presence of extraterrestrial life on Earth.”

A secondary statement was: “A secretive power elite with a globalist agenda is conspiring to rule the world through an authoritarian world government.” 33 per cent of Canadians believed this to be true.

The same set of questions also had the statement: “The Apollo moon landings were "staged" in a studio.” Fully 15 per cent of Canadians bought the idea.

And for American readers, how about: “Barack Obama is not a natural-born citizen of the United States and, therefore, is ineligible to serve as President.” 12 per cent agreed.

Going through the data, there are some other interesting findings.


Demographically, Manitobans are the most skeptical in almost every category. On the issue of cover-up, for example, 40 per cent of Manitobans believed, while 44 percent of Ontarians and 43 per cent of Quebecois believed. Other questions and statements had similar spreads.

The poll also found a correlation between pop culture and belief in UFOs:
As it turns out, another large indicator of a person’s propensity to believe earth has been visited is found when looking at their relationship with the iconic television show The X-Files. The correlation makes sense – believers may seek out a show that explores this issue, and non-believing viewers may be more inclined to ponder the question after watching. 
...seven-in-ten (71%) hardcore fans report that the belief that aliens have visited earth, roughly double the number among people who are unfamiliar with the show.
I'm not sure how certain really could be. The poll also found that among people who "Didn't Know Anything" about the X-Files TV show, belief still ranked at 34 per cent. (Yes, there are such people! 13 per cent of all Canadians, according to the poll!)

But I don’t see the correlation in what was actually in the poll. The respondents were asked: “Would you say people who are fans of the show are generally more or less likely than non-fans to believe in such phenomena?”

Which is a bit different.

As for other paranormal phenomena, 47 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men believe it is possible to communicate with the dead.



Finally, the poll revealed a significant belief that science was not all it's cracked up to be.

When asked to respond to the statement: “There are things that happen on Earth that cannot be explained by science,” an amazing 77 per cent said  it was “Definitely” or “Probably” true.



Neil de Grasse Tyson certainly has his work cut out for him.

Source:
http://angusreid.org/extra-terrestrials-stranger-things/

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# posted by rutkows @ 1:15 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

 

Poll on Canadians' views on UFOs


Also among the online copies of the MUFON UFO Journal is this article by me (which I had completely forgotten about).


MUFON UFO Journal
December 1997   Number 356

1997 Canadian poll suggests ten percent have seen UFO's
By Chris Rutkowski, UFOROM

Abstract

A survey of Canadians regarding beliefs and attitudes towards the subject of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) was conducted by an independent research network. The results suggest that almost ten percent of all Canadians believe they have seen a UFO and that belief in the existence of extraterrestrial life is very high among the general population, confirming results from other surveys conducted by national and international professional polling organizations.

Method

During August, 1997, Ufology Research of Manitoba (UFOROM) requested the assistance of independent, civilian UFO groups for a project surveying Canadians on their beliefs and attitudes concerning unidentified flying objects (UFOs). Participating groups were solicited on the basis of their record of investigation and active contribution to Canadian ufology. Participating groups were UFO*BC (Vancouver), Seekers (Brandon). UFOROM (Winnipeg), MUFON Ontario (Toronto) and SOS OVNI Quebec (Montreal). During a period of one week, Canadians were surveyed in five cities across the country. Surveys were conducted randomly either in person in public locations or by telephone. Each pollster used an identical set of questions. (A literal translation of the survey from English into French was used in Quebec.)
Survey results were collected and forwarded to UFOROM where each respondent's answers were coded and entered into a computer database. Data was entered in MicroSoft Access, then translated into Excel and later into a file readable by SPSS for Windows so that analyses could be performed.

Results

A total of 167 respondents provided data for the survey. Age breakdown was a good cross-section of the populace, as follows:

Age                        Number               Percent
Under 20                19                           11.4
20-29                     52                           31.1
30-39                     35                           21.0
40-49                     23                           13.8
50+                        38                           22.8

The number of respondents varied from city to city, as follows:

City                    Number               Percent
Vancouver          20                           12.0
Brandon               62                           37.1
Winnipeg             50                           29.9
Toronto                10                           6.0
Montreal             25                           15.0

The educational background of the respondents varied as follows:

Highest Level of Education                           Number               Percent
Less than grade 12                                           32                           19.3
Grade 12                                                          83                           50.0
First Degree/Diploma/Certificate                       38                           22.9
Second Degree                                                 12                           7.2
PhD                                                                   1                              0.6

Gender distribution was very nearly equal:

Sex         Number               Percent
Female      80                           47.9
Male         87                           52.1

Survey Questions Related to UFOs

In response to the question: "Do you believe in the existence of life elsewhere in the universe?" people answered:

Yes             78%
Not sure      9.0%
No             12.6%

This overwhelming positive response suggests that most Canadians believe in the existence of extraterrestrial life.

This result is comparable to a 1996 Angus Reid poll which found that 70% of the Canadian population believed in the existence of extraterrestrial life. A 1985 Roper poll found only 41 % of the American population believed likewise. In response to the question: "Do you believe that some UFOs are alien spacecraft?" people answered:

Yes                 52.1%
Not sure          22.2%
No                  25.7%

The qualifier 'some' obviously created a problem for some respondents. Other polls have asked "Are UFOs real?" without qualifying "real" to respondents. In those studies, Roper (1985) found that 25% responded positively, whereas Gallup (1990) found 27% responded positively. It is thought that the qualifier affected the results. Yes, this survey suggests that more than half of the population believes aliens are presently visiting Earth. The big question of interest to ufologists was the query: "Have you ever seen a UFO?" In the present survey, the results were:

Yes            9.6%
Not sure     6.0
No            84.4%

Nearly one in ten Canadians believe they have seen UFOs. In terms of population, this translates into a
staggering 3 million Canadians who are UFO witnesses. While this seems high, it should be noted that according to studies of UFO data, only a small percentage of UFO reports remain unexplainable after investigation. In other words, the fact that a large number of people claim to have seen UFOs does not translate into a large number of actual "real" unknown objects seen. (And, it should be noted, an
unexplained UFO does not automatically mean that a spaceship was seen by a witness.)
This result compares very well with other polls. A 1978 Gallup poll found that 9% of the American population had seen UFOs, a 1985 Roper poll found 7% and a 1996 Newsweek poll found 12% had seen UFOs. But this question is even more useful with the accompanying question, asked of UFO witnesses: "Did you report the UFO to any civilian or government organization?" The responses to this confirm what has been suspected by ufologists for some time, namely, that most UFOs go unreported:

Yes           12.5%
Not sure     6.3%
No            81.3%

Only slightly over 12 per cent of UFO sightings are reported. This means that out of the 3 million which were seen by Canadians, only about 375,000 were officially reported. This is still a large number, but is easier to reconcile with the numbers of reports on file with various agencies.
For example, other studies of Canadian UFO data have found that an average of about 250 UFO reports are made each year. Knowing that only one in ten are reported, this means that 2500 sightings actually take place. Further, studies show that UFO sightings are most often witnessed by more than one person at a time.
This means that at least 5,000 people see UFOs each year. If we calculate that the living population of Canadians who have seen UFOs in their lifetimes is uniform each year (and assuming people only see UFOs once in their lifetimes), we can multiply the number of UFO witnesses each year by at least 50 years to give the number of living Canadians who have seen UFOs.
This figure is 250,000, only a factor of 12 smaller than the number calculated based on the percentage discerned through the poll. This is close enough to the reported values that we can suggest that the results of the poll reflect actual reporting characteristics in the country.
Another approach to UFO reporting was to ask people: "If you ever saw a UFO, to whom would you report it?" This question was asked specifically of people who said they had not seen a UFO, in order to understand how the issue of reporting would be approached should the opportunity arise. The answers are interesting in their trends and dispersion:

Reported to                       Percent

No one                                 14.4
Friends                                 4.3
Family                                   4.3
UFO group                          14.4
Planetarium                            2.9
University                               2.9
Not sure                              14.4
Police                                  13.7
RCMP                                  4.3
Military/Airforce                    3.6
Government                         16.5
Media/Many people              4.3

The results are arranged in order from a scale whereby witnesses are not comfortable with telling others about their sightings to an extreme where they tell anyone and everyone. The five most common responses are interesting, with nearly identical percentages: No one, a UFO group, Not sure, Police and Government. (Curiously, very few people said they would report UFOs to the military, implying, perhaps, that there is some distrust or uncertainty about that specific kind of authority.)
In Canada, "police" and "RCMP" are highly analogous, so we may be justified in combining the two categories to produce the largest group at 18%. This could be a concern, because there is no concerted effort or mandate for police or RCMP to investigate UFOs at this time. What would be done with the reports? Even worse is the number of people who would report UFOs to the government (16.5%). With a bit of thought, this avenue is quite unacceptable. The National Research Council of Canada ceased accepting UFO reports in 1995. At the present time, there is no official government body which is in any way interested in public UFO reports. This might pose a problem to those respondents if they were to ever actually see a UFO. The percentage of people who would not tell anyone about their UFO experience (14.4%) is at odds with that of people who have seen UFOs and admit they did not make an official report (81.3%). We can note that the actual witnessing of a UFO would cause most people to hesitate before reporting their sighting. Only 14.4% would actually report their sighting to a UFO group or organization. Obviously, this would depend on the witness knowing how to contact a group in his or her area.
When we correlate the results of this question with the age of respondents we find a strong relationship (p<.05). Older people tended toward reporting sightings to authorities such as police and government, whereas younger people would tend only to tell friends and family. This might suggest that
there is still some distrust of authority among younger adults.
Belief in a military or government cover-up also produced interesting results. "Do you believe there is a military or government cover-up regarding the existence of UFOs?"

Yes            57.5%
Not sure       9.0%
No             33.5%

More than half the population feel that information about UFOs is being withheld from the general public. This compares well with the Newsweek poll (1996) which found 49% of the American population believed there was a coverup. Finally, respondents were asked if anyone else in their families had seen UFOs.

Yes              13.3%
Not sure       14.5%
No               72.3%

The small percentage of positive responses suggests that UFO witnesses probably do not come from a family with a history of experiencing anomalous phenomena. This is a complex issue that could be explored by researchers in other studies.

Correlative studies

A number of significant correlations were found between factors within the data. The capitalized titles are abbreviations used in coding and correlating the data. AGE was negatively correlated with COVER-UP (p=.007). This means that older people tended not to believe in a cover-up, but younger adults did. This is perhaps related to a generational difference in trust in government.
COVER-UP was also negatively correlated with EDUCATION (p=.032). People with greater education tended not to believe in a cover-up. AGE was very strongly negatively correlated with belief in
extraterrestrial life, THE (p=.000). Older people are very likely not to believe in the existence of extraterrestrial life, but younger adults almost certainly hold such a belief What is interesting is that a strong belief in THE is correlated strongly with belief in a COVER-UP (p=.000). It perhaps makes sense that if a person believes that there is life elsewhere in the universe, he or she might think the government or military would have this same knowledge and were withholding it because there is no open acceptance of this fact.
UFO ALIEN was negatively correlated with AGE (p=.000). Older Canadians were unwilling to accept that some UFOs were alien spacecraft. However, UFOALIEN was strongly correlated with
COVER-UP (p=.000). People who believe UFOs are alien spacecraft definitely think that there is a suppression of this knowledge. YES REPORT was correlated with COVER-UP (p=.018). This implies that people who have seen a UFO are more likely to believe there is a cover-up. This is probably because to their own satisfaction, UFOs exist, against denials of that fact by government and military organizations.
Only a weak correlation was found between EDUCATION and UFO ALIEN (p=.094). It has long been thought that there was a relationship between the amount of education and a belief in UFOs as alien spacecraft, but this was only slightly indicated.
Curiously, there was a significant correlation found between gender and the question of others in a witness' family who have seen a UFO. For unknown reasons, more women than men reported that others in their families had seen UFOs (p=.006). At present, we have no way of interpreting this with confidence, other than by noting that women may tend to know more than men about matters within their families.

Highlights of the Survey

Based on survey data:



Limitations

This was a preliminary study which attempted to coordinate Canadian UFO-related organizations in a national research project. Although UFO groups tend to function independently, a pooling of resources has always been considered as a possibility for research projects. In the past, however, sharing of information and coordinated efforts have not been entirely successful. The results of the present study may pave the way for future cooperative ventures in scientific ufology. The survey had a number of limitations which likely affected its results. First and foremost, the small sample size and uneven representation across the country may have caused biases to enter into the data. Future surveys and polls will have to address this problem. A second issue was raised because of the independent nature of ufology itself. Each of the participating groups may have used slightly different methods in selecting respondents, and randomness may have been compromised as a result. Another factor is that polling generally took place in metropolitan centers and may not reflect geographic and demographic differences from coast to coast. Maritime Canada was not represented, and neither were the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan and the North. Although polling may have covered most of the primary population centers in Canada, it is possible that there would be major differences in respondents if all provinces and territories were included. However, the logistical problems in acquiring data from remote regions and provinces without organized UFO groups for human resources are not insignificant. Yet we must note that the quality of information obtained in this pilot study may indicate that such a major effort is warranted and should be explored.

Acknowledgements

Without the active participation of independent UFO groups, this study would have been impossible. Appreciation is given to the groups: UFO*BC (Vancouver), Seekers (Brandon), UFOROM (Winnipeg), MUFON Ontario (Toronto) and SOS OVNI Quebec (Montreal). Individual thanks go to Dave Pengilly, Gavin McLeod, Graham Conway, Bill Oliver, Brian Fidler, Dave Creighton, Steve Hladkyj, Errol Bruce-Knapp, Sue Kovios, Tom Theofanous, Victor Viggaini, Drew Williamson, Victor Lorenco, Jacques
Poulet and Riccardo Melfi.

References

Angus Reid/Southam News Poll (1996). Canadians on the possible existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life. Released Sept. 10,1996.
Durant, Robert (1997). Public opinion polls and UFOs. In: UFO 1947-1997. Fifty years of flying saucers. London: Fortean Times.
ReutersVariety News Poll (1996). Nearly half of all Americans think the government is hiding proof of UFOs from the public. Released July 1, 1996.

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# posted by rutkows @ 10:04 AM 0 comments

Sunday, May 05, 2019

 

How many see UFOs? How many report them?


I had posted the latest Canadian UFO Survey results, and was surprised when someone questioned that only ten percent of all witnesses report their experiences.

 (Not that he had offered any alternative, just that he doubted the value was correct.)

 I realized that most people in ufology these days have likely never seen poll data on UFOs, so I went looking for results from Gallup, Decima, and others. 

 Of course, I've posted about such things many times, but hey, no one listens to me.

 In 2012, I noted:

 http://uforum.blogspot.com/2012/06/lies-damn-lies-and-polls-about-ufos.html

 And them in 1997, MUFON published an article concerning the Ufology Research poll of Canadians about UFOs.

 http://uforum.blogspot.com/2012/11/poll-on-canadians-views-on-ufos.html

 (Yes, there was a time when MUFON liked me.)

 So, there are some stats to  back up that about ten per cent of the population believe they have seen UFOs, and that only a small percentage of UFO witnesses report them, as one might expect given the climate of ridicule that is still evident.

 And one this that came out of that early study was the note that about the same number of people were as likely to report their UFO experience to a UFO group as to not report it at all. But they would rather report it to a government agency.


Maybe the US Navy will be getting some UFO reports, after all.

 I would love to do a more rigorous set of polls on this, with cooperation from many UFO groups so that we can get a better sample size and hopefully more refined results.

 But that's not likely to happen.

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# posted by rutkows @ 9:36 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

 

The Great (Non-)Debate About UFOs

I had been contacted some time ago by Sun Media for the series they were doing on UFOs. I was under the impression they were going to run it before Hallowe'en, but scheduling had it just start on October 31 and ran the next few days. Curiously, some Sun Media papers ran all three parts on the same day, while others chose to spread it out.

Anyway, I had been asked to comment on the QMI survey that they were doing, without knowing the results. I gave them details on the survey that Ufology Research had done some time ago, and sent them the excellent and virtually unread paper Geoff Dittman had written on UFO polls, noted here previously:

https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1HeLpsnzccUl_K6Fj-koqkvqWV6rdzanYN0Bcczahf2U

The other thing I was asked to do was give answers to a set of questions that would be posed to both myself and archskeptic Robert Sheaffer, who headed the UFO subcommittee of CSICOP.

The two-sided Q&A was published thusly:

http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2826623

I'll also note the text here in case the link dies (as it has for some of the papers already):

LOOK! UP IN THE SKY!
By THANE BURNETT

After a series of puzzling stories in 2010 concerning UFOs -- publicized sightings from Newfoundland and Montreal to China and the U.K. -- QMI Agency, in a three-part Alien Probe special report, has looked at how humans continue to contemplate mysteries in the heavens.

And in the discussion, Canadians overwhelmingly - an exclusive Leger Marketing poll revealed yesterday - believe UFOs could be connected to alien visitors.

But in this final day of the series, we thought it might be worthwhile to get a grounding in facts.

So we invited renowned American skeptic and debunker Robert Sheaffer and Canadian UFO-buff Chris Rutkowski -- a Winnipeg-based astronomer who helps keep track of Canadian sightings -- to debate the known realities.

[Here are the Questions]

Do you believe aliens are visiting our world?

Chris: The UFO question is not about aliens visiting Earth, but about sightings of UFOs, which are not necessarily extraterrestrial. But since you asked, I would say there is no incontrovertible evidence to prove that aliens are visiting Earth. All we can say, scientifically, is that astronomers haven't detected any large interstellar craft heading for Earth during the last century or two. However, it would be presumptuous to think we have the ability to recognize, let alone detect a technology that might be hundreds or thousands of years ahead of us.

Robert: No. Nor do I believe in Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster, or sightings of Elvis. Just because some people think they see something strange doesn't mean it's real.

What would it take to make skeptics believe?

Chris: Again, I doubt it will happen. By definition, skeptics are doubters to the end. A debunker, on the other hand, refuses to consider evidence against his or her belief system. It's their version of religion. Some have the attitude: "Don't bother me with the facts; my mind is already made up." Some debunkers state that no scientific studies show UFOs are worth the effort, but don't mention relevant literature, such as Blue Book Special Report 14, or the annual Canadian UFO surveys, or NARCAP reports on pilots' sightings. Sometimes a debunker says that a piece of metal with a non-terrestrial isotope ratio would be convincing proof of alien visitation, but I'm sure that the testing and analysis of such a piece, if ever offered, would be so clouded in doubt and accusations, it wouldn't be worth a plugged Martian nickel.

Robert - Obviously if a UFO landed on the White House lawn, that would suffice. But it need not be something so dramatic. If hundreds or even thousands of people independently sighted, and many photographed, a large flying structured craft in daylight (not some little dot in the sky), and all these photos were consistent with a real object, it would be very difficult to say that object wasn't real. Especially if the people had no connection or common link beforehand. But that never happens. Why not? Some UFOs are reported to hang around for an hour or more. Isn't that enough time to get a TV news crew to the site, even just once?

What would it take to make believers lose faith?

Chris: In my opinion, it won't happen easily, if at all. Belief is something that cannot be changed without a paradigm shift. Pronouncements by "experts" that something is not possible or deserving of study likely only reinforce long-standing beliefs held by people who may be looking for affirmation or validation beyond authorities' insistence. And to someone who has seen a UFO, skeptics' insistence that belief in UFOs is nonsense only reinforces a distrust of science. It's like Columbus being told by skeptics not to waste his time looking for the New World because it couldn't possibly be there. Oh, wait. They did tell him that. My bad. Sorry.

Robert: I don't think that ever could happen, since most of them have a strong emotional attachment to the "faith." It's much like a religious faith, and not based on logic. No matter how many UFO sightings are shown to have a rational explanation, believers resist accepting the explanation, and claim there is a government "cover-up" of UFO secrets.

What's your best theory behind a long history of UFO sightings around the globe?

Chris: The simplest theory is that not everyone can identify what they see in the sky. Nevertheless, UFO sightings represent a historical, persistent and global phenomenon, and for that reason, it seems reasonable that science should be studying it in more depth. UFOs are either physical phenomena, or psychological or sociological phenomena, so that in either case, scientists should be studying UFO reports.

Robert: It began in the frenzied post-War and early Cold War atmosphere of rapid progress in aeronautics and rockets, and of the atom bomb. Exciting and sometimes frightening new things were happening all the time. Once a certain percentage of the population believed that UFOs were something real, reports of UFO sightings in the mass media were enough for the phenomenon to feed on itself. Every time people saw something in the sky that looked a little strange, "It's a Flying Saucer!" became the conclusion.

Do you believe world governments are withholding important information on UFO sightings?

Chris: Most countries' governments withhold some information from their constituents. Why should the subject of UFOs be exempt? It is reasonable to think that data on certain UFO cases would have been collected through intelligence channels that are classified, and for that reason would be withheld from public scrutiny. There are many circumstances under which FOIA (or in Canada, AI) requests about would be denied, and we wouldn't even know the documents existed.

Robert: No. There undoubtedly are a few reports in the secret files from pilots or military personnel on a special mission who think they've seen a UFO. Stuff like that. But documents that "reveal" the "startling truth" about what UFOs are, where they come from, etc. -- nope.

We seem to be going through one of those periodic upswings in the number of UFO news stories. What should people take away from these reports?

Chris: Well, for one thing, this tells us there are many qualified observers who have seen and reported UFOs. It has been said that pilots make mistakes of observation as much as anyone else, but let's face it: Their observational abilities are relied upon every day for making judgments that keep our lives safe. If a military pilot with 10,000 hours in the air says he saw something that mystified him, it's worth talking about.

Robert: That even trained personnel can mistake ordinary phenomena for something strange and exotic. They're human, just like the rest of us. And none of these people have any actual proof that they witnessed something mysterious, it's just their interpretation of what they saw. So many sightings, so little evidence.

A few things to note:

I was described as a "UFO buff" - not the most accurate term, but something that anyone who studies the UFO phenomenon seriously has to live with. I take some comfort from the fact that J. Allen Hynek was also often called a UFO buff.

Also, on Twitter, after a member of the Ottawa skeptics tweeted a link to the debate, he was asked who "won" the debate. He replied, not surprisingly, that the skeptic did, because the "believer" attacked skeptics in his answers. Two things arise from that. First of all, debunkers often resort to attacks on supporters of UFO investigation in print, and it's considered fair game. Secondly, calling me a "believer" is curious. What, exactly, am I "believer" in? Interestingly, if you examine what I said in print, nothing there is at odds with conventional science. I made no claims about invasions by little green men, alien intervention in government activities, nor the existence of pod creatures in our neighbourhoods. In fact, I was very careful to simply argue that the UFO phenomenon should not be dismissed by science but studied scientifically and objectively.

I think that my being labeled as a "believer" was a result of my opponent being called a skeptic, and so for a debate, I had to have an opposing or contradictory viewpoint. But if you look at our two answers, they are mostly in line with one another. That thwarted a really juicy American-style political debate, but it did accurately give readers a sense of where serious ufology makes its stand. (And I'm often called a "skeptic" in the UFO community because I don't buy into a lot of what's touted as ufology these days.)

So, given that I must be wrong because the skeptic is right, my statement that there is "no incontrovertible evidence to prove that aliens are visiting Earth" must be in error. Ergo, aliens are here.

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# posted by rutkows @ 9:02 AM 1 comments

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

 

The Sky Canada Project "Preview Report"

 
The Sky Canada Project "Preview Report"


The Office of the Chief Science Advisor for Canada (OCSA) has published its first report on the Sky Canada Project. It had been delayed several months, having been scheduled originally for the fall of 2024. News came in December 2024 that it would be published in two parts in 2025, the first being an executive summary plus recomendations, and the body of the report later in the year.

The first part was released on January 15, 2025, titled: Management of Public Reportingof Unidentified Aerial Phenomena in Canada - A preview of the upcoming Sky Canada Report.



It contains a "Message from the Chief Science Advisor of Canada," Dr. Mona Nemer, and an Executive Summary. These are followed by two appendices, the first being a list of contributors and experts consulted (including me) and the second, the results of a survey of Canadians by an outside agency, regarding opinions on UAP.

No, it was not "Disclosure," as some UAP media darlings had claimed. In fact, I'm fairly sure that most UFO fans will be disappointed with the report, as it does not contain details of a single UAP case, names of whistleblowers, or locations of crashed UFOs.

[Which is not surprising to anyone who studies ufology beyond sensational claims on social media.]

In fact, OCSA made that clear several times, including on its website, which even had a Disclaimer at the top of the page:

Disclaimer

It should be noted that the Sky Canada Project is not intended to access and collect first-hand data (like photos, testimonies, etc.), nor is it intended to make the OCSA the main point of contact for Canadians wishing to report observations or personal experiences. Furthermore, it is not meant to prove or disprove the existence of extraterrestrial life or extraterrestrial visitors.


Instead, the Sky Canada Project was designed to look at what has been done about UAP within the Canadian government, and how that approach is working. It's essentially laying the foundation for a pretty decent major study of UAP, perhaps better than the Colorado Study.

The Sky Canada Project was launched in the Fall of 2022 to study how Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) reports from the public are managed in Canada and to recommend improvements.

There's nothing in there about Disclosure.

What is in the report, then? Nemer lays this out in her Message:

Our goal was to find the current resources and processes in place for handling and following up on UAP reports, to compare them with the best practices in other countries, and to make recommendations for potential improvements. Accordingly, this report focuses on the services available to the Canadian public for reporting UAPs, and not on the UAPs themselves; understanding this distinction is critical to reading the report. The Sky Canada Project is not about investigating what UAPs are. It is about science informing and serving everyone.

The study explores the current reporting landscape, identifies gaps, and provides recommendations to enhance transparency and scientific inquiry on UAP issues in Canada.

In other words, Nemer's team wanted to know what was being done about UAP in government departments and make recommendations for what should be done to improve the situation. (i.e. lots)

The emphasis was on taking a scientific approach, even calling on the Canadian scientific community to take a more active role in studying UAP. In particular, the Canadian Space Agency was suggested as a hub for UAP research. (As if.)

She went on:

The Sky Canada Team gathered information from federal departments and agencies, stakeholders, experts, and other organizations, on how UAP observations reported by the public are handled in Canada.

We also examined publicly available records such as historical UAP data, as well as reports and investigations related to UAPs. This included examining historical practices and archives, as well as current procedures and challenges associated with collecting and analyzing reliable data.


Similar to AARO in the USA, Sky Canada is interested in how to study UAP, going forward, as opposed to trying to figure out how to use historical records and data, although they looked at them a bit. They did examine the Canadian UFO Survey in detail, for example, and Nemer made reference to the Survey when she noted: “Some public sources estimate that Canadians report somewhere between 600 and 1,000 UAP sightings annually.”

Overall, the Sky Canada Project report lays the foundation for Canadian research and investigations into the nature of UAP. It reviewed the present status of UAP interest and involvement within government and also took the pulse of Canadians and their views on UAP. The report made a series of recommendations on Canada’s involvement with the UAP issue, suggesting a need for greater transparency within government, greater response to the Canadian public needing more and more accurate information on UAP, and increased attention from the scientific community, particularly the Canadian Space Agency.

Sky Canada noted several concerns with the way UAP are handled by the Canadian government right now:


Gaps:

There's no one place to report UAP in Canada (or anywhere, actually). This means that various departments might get UAP reports, but there's no consistency or methodology in doing it.

There's no place for the public or researchers to get reliable info about UAP. Again, a universal problem.

Even given UAP cases reported to official bodies, there's usually no analysis of sightings; no follow-up with witnesses. This is especially the case with Transport Canada and with most civilian UFO groups.

The science community is not interested in UAP.

Among the general population, science literacy is low, and there is a need to change this. Nemer actually noted that many witnesses report simple misidentifications, and how misinformation is rampant in society.

Okay, then, what can be done from here? Nemer's team had many recommendations:

Recommendations:

A federal agency should be designated to handle UAP. The Canadian Space Agency was named, in particular. (They'll love that.)

An investigative body should be created to look into UAP sightings.

Transport Canada should amend its policy to encourage pilots to report UAP. (Technically, this already is in place.)

There should be more public dialogue about UAP between the government, academics, and the general population.

There should be more intergovernmental cooperation regarding UAP. In other words, RCMP should share with DND, with Transport Canada, AECL, etc.

There should be better media relations about the subject.

An advisory body should be created to counter misinformation about UAP.

UAP data should be made publicly accessible.

There should be periodic surveys of Canadians to monitor beliefs.

Encourage citizen science on UAP, including volunteer projects, public library presentations, etc.

A resource should be developed for data collection, such as an app to report UAP. (Like Enigma has in place.)

Astronomers should enter into serious discussion about UAP. This was a curious recommendation, as the Sky Canada Project mentioned extraterrestrial life a few times, suggesting it's a major factor in UAP studies.

Share UAP info with international organizations and bodies such as NASA, AARO, etc.

Encourage and foster research collaborations on the subject of UAP.

How many of these will be adopted? Who knows?

In many ways, Sky Canada's survey of Canadians has some of the most interesting information. Readers of my blog will know that Ufology Research conducted a poll of Canadians years ago about UFOs. And I've posted about polls on the subject several times.

The Sky Canada survey found that 30% of Canadians are concerned with UAP and that 40% say UAP are a flight safety issue. 

For me, if so many Canadians are concerned about UAP as a safety issue, that alone is enough to warrant more serious study.

About 10% of Canadians believe UAP are alien spacecraft.


Sky Canada found that Canadians are very thirsty for news about UAP. 67% are interested in stories about UAP, and 62% specifically want to hear news about UAP in Canada.

Remarkably, Sky Canada found that 27% of Canadians have seen a UAP at one point in their lives, and 11% in the past year, although only 9% of witnesses reported their sighting. This is related to the finding that 38% of Canadians have no idea where to report a UAP. 28% say they would report a UAP sighting to police or military offices, although neither of these have processes in place to deal with reports. Only 13% of Canadians would report a UAP to a government office.

The survey found that in general, Canadians want more government involvement with UAP issues. 55% want a government agency for handling UAP reports, and 60% think the government should keep Canadians informed about UAP. Furthermore, 49% of Canadians (vs 40% against) think the government should allocate funding to investigate UAP.


The most surprising finding was that 27% of Canadians say they've seen a UAP. That's at odds with all other polls on the subject, which usually found about 10% of the population had seen UFOs or UAP. The most likely reason for the difference is the way in which polling was conducted by the outside agency, which used responses from "1,008 members from an online panel." Sky Canada cautioned, therefore: "Note that the results of such self-selected participant surveys cannot be described as statistically projectable to the entire Canadian population."

We can hope that the Canadian government will listen to Canadians and implement the recommendations of the Sky Canada Project.

[NB: yes, they called them "aerial" instead of "anomalous." Canada doesn't have any underwater or space-based UAP.]

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# posted by rutkows @ 10:03 AM 1 comments

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